Tuesday, 13 July 2010

Lady Luck

I had an incident recently where I was trying to dislodge the remains of a Tactical Squad from an Objective. They were out in the open and I fired at them with 4 Boltguns and a Plasma Gun all within rapid fire range. So, that's 10 shots against three guys. My first roll is lucky, I only miss with one Bolter. Now, see if you can guess how many wounds I caused? If you guessed 0, you just won a cookie.

I'm going to mathammer this is two ways. Firstly, the whole event of shooting and then secondly what should happen with 9 hits.

Bolter Wounds = P(Hit) x P(Wound) x Number of shots
= 2/3 x 1/2 x8
= 8/3 (just under three wounds)

Plasma Gun Wounds = P(Hit) x P(Wound) x Number of shots
= 2/3 x 5/6 x 2
= 10/9 (just over one wound)

The Plasma Gun wound and a Boltgun wound would go on one guy and then the other two would take a 3+ save each. Since we've rounded in our favour for the wounds, lets be kind and say they both survive. Still, mathammer kills one more than I managed to.

Let's see what should have happened after I rolled 9 hits:

Bolter Wounds = P(Wound) x Number of hits
= 1/2 x 7
= 7/2 (3 and a half wounds)

Plasma Gun Wounds = P(Wound) x Number of hits
= 5/6 x 2
= 10/6 (just under 2)

Lets call it 2 AP2 wounds and 3 Ap5 for the sake of simplicity. One guy gets both AP2 wounds and the other two guys have three 3+ saves to make between them failing one. So, two dead.

Hmm, maybe my dice are just cursed.


  1. :(

    Never try to kill things using Fire Dragons with those dice, mine will try to compete...

  2. Clearly Jervis performs some kind of incantation over every dice cube that leaves the GW factory to ensure that they're cursed. On the plus side, I have a really good record passing leadership tests lol



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